Is There a Future for Russia’s Wagner Mercenary Army in Belarus?

If Putin changes his mind about Prigozhin and initiates some sort of revenge, Minsk will not be able to protect the Wagner leader, who knows that full well. Lukashenko in turn cannot believe the promises of Prigozhin, a warlord who has just betrayed his patron, to diligently follow Belarusian rules. One of the strangest twists in the short-lived Wagner mutiny in Russia was the involvement of Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko, who allegedly brokered the deal between mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Kremlin, and is even willing to host Wagner in Belarus.

The Kremlin, Lukashenko, and Prigozhin supposedly agreed that the latter and his Wagner troops would escape punishment for mutiny and be offered safe haven in Belarus in exchange for stopping their march on Moscow. The Belarusian authorities have assembled a camp capable of accommodating up to 5,000 soldiers at an abandoned military base, but there is no sign of Prigozhin or any of his units there, and Wagner’s prospects of finding a new home in Belarus grow more distant with every passing day.

Nor is it clear what exactly the infamous mercenary army would do there. Lukashenko, often described as Putin’s vassal, was an unexpected intermediary in what was arguably the most dangerous political crisis the Russian president has ever faced.

Still, the real extent of Lukashenko’s involvement is far from clear. The official accounts from both Russia and Belarus can hardly be taken at face value, especially since even they differ.