Flexible Stagnation: How Lukashenka Has Held On To Power For 25 Years In Belarus

And a 39-year-old former collective farm director with a deep, nasal voice and a knack for populist pronouncements won the first — and so far only — democratic presidential election in Belarus. Alyaksandr Lukashenka was sworn in on July 20, 1994, beginning the first of five presidential terms — and counting. Europe and the world have undergone startling transformations over the last quarter-century but the presence of Lukashenka has been a constant. Or has it? The wily leader of this resource-poor nation of 10 million bordering Russia, Ukraine, and three European Union and NATO countries has proven endlessly flexible in his constancy, turning his country into a textbook example of adaptive authoritarianism. To the surprise of most observers, the political neophyte Lukashenka proved from the beginning to be an adroit politician with formidable instincts. At a turbulent time he tapped a vein of conservatism in Belarus, whose citizens overwhelmingly voted against the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1991 referendum and have often sought stability but had to settle for stagnation. He moved quickly to lay the foundations of the authoritarian system that has become entrenched under his rule by holding a constitutional referendum in 1996 that extended his term to 2001, gave his decrees the force of law, and gave him virtually complete control over the state budget. With these powers, he quickly established personal control over all key institutions — the judiciary, election commissions, unions, law enforcement and security agencies, all major media, and so on.

In 2004, Lukashenka held another constitutional referendum that abolished presidential term limits and completed his personal power-vertical project. «I don't consider Lukashenka a failure,» political analyst and opposition United Civil Party Chairman Alyaksandr Feduta tells RFE/RL's Belarus Service. «He did not intend to run the country, but to take power. As early as 1994, he built the presidential 'vertical.' His firm system of control required the reduction of the role of the media and business and the disappearance of political alternatives.» Feduta adds that Lukashenka was never serious about his declared intention to «revive the Soviet Union.» «It was always unacceptable for him to be restricted by any external power or even an ideology,» he says. «The main obstacle to the development of a state or national ideology has...